The Replaceability Index

Lower-Exposure Careers: 30 Roles to Investigate

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There is no job title that guarantees protection from technological change. There are roles whose task mix scores lower in this dataset. Use them as research leads, then check whether their training requirements, working conditions, and opportunities fit your life.

What this list measures

The list below is sorted by the stored occupation exposure score, lowest first. Ties do not imply a meaningful difference in career prospects. These are estimates from the Index, not BLS or OECD predictions that particular careers are safe. Read the scoring limitations.

The first ten roles

Mental Health Counselors (2/100); Elementary School Teachers (2/100); Physician Assistants (2/100); Physical Therapists (2/100); Nurse Practitioners (2/100); Family Medicine Physicians (2/100); Dentists, General (2/100); Occupational Therapists (2/100); Nurse Anesthetists (2/100); Surgeons, All Other (2/100). These are stored Index values at this article revision, not individual forecasts.

Ten more roles to consider

Psychiatrists (2/100); Marriage and Family Therapists (2/100); Clergy (2/100); Kindergarten Teachers (2/100); Special Education Teachers, Preschool (2/100); Special Education Teachers, Kindergarten and Elementary School (2/100); Special Education Teachers, Middle School (2/100); Athletes and Sports Competitors (2/100); Nurse Midwives (2/100); Acute Care Nurse Practitioners (2/100). These are stored Index values at this article revision, not individual forecasts.

Complete the shortlist

Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons (2/100); Construction Managers (3/100); Chief Executives (4/100); Clinical and Counseling Psychologists (4/100); Child, Family, and School Social Workers (4/100); Secondary School Teachers (4/100); Physicians, All Other (4/100); Preschool Teachers (4/100); Anesthesiologists (4/100); General Internal Medicine Physicians (4/100). These are stored Index values at this article revision, not individual forecasts.

Look for the reason, not just the rank

Work involving physical environments, interpersonal coordination, judgment under uncertainty, or responsibility for outcomes may have constraints that are missing from a simple text-generation demonstration. Those constraints deserve investigation; they do not make a role immune to change.

A lower score also says nothing by itself about pay, injury risk, accessibility, scheduling, licensing, or local job openings. A career can look attractive on an exposure ranking and still be a poor fit for you.

Test whether a move is realistic

Pick two or three adjacent roles. Read actual job descriptions, talk to people doing the work, and check the required credentials. Compare the cost of training and the likely time away from paid work before paying for a course.

You may be able to add a valuable responsibility inside your current role instead of changing careers. The high-pay, low-exposure ranking is another comparison tool, not a promise of employment.

Frequently asked questions

Are these jobs AI-proof?

No. Lower exposure in a model is not permanent safety, and occupation-level scores cannot predict an individual career outcome.

Should I retrain for the lowest-scoring occupation?

Only after considering your interests, health, finances, training requirements, and local demand. The ranking is one input among several.

Sources and methodology

The score is a relative index of task exposure from 0 to 100. It is not a percentage chance of losing a job or a forecast of layoffs. Individual tasks, employer choices, adoption, and regulation all matter.

The Index uses stored BLS-based occupation data. O*NET, OECD capability indicators, and task-exposure research are contextual references. The derivation of the stored occupation scores is not reproducibly documented in the published dataset.

The source snapshot does not record the wage-survey year or employment-projection window. Check the original BLS release before treating these figures as current. Editorial changes and export dates do not establish data freshness.

Read the methodology and limitations

This essay reflects the evidence available when written; future outcomes remain uncertain.

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