AI Replaceability Scores by Occupation: How to Read the Index
By Shawn Geeman · 2 min read · Published · Updated
A score is useful when its meaning stays clear. The Index is a way to compare estimated task exposure across occupations and explore your own work. It is not a calibrated probability of replacement.
The scale has limits
The replaceability score ranges from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating greater estimated exposure. The endpoints describe the model scale. They do not certify that a job at zero is immune or that a job at 100 can be completely automated in practice.
The tier labels divide that scale into bands: Shielded at 0 to 30, Exposed at 31 to 60, Targeted at 61 to 85, and Boss at 86 to 100. These are product labels, not scientific classifications or deadlines.
Occupation scores and personal assessments are different
The public rankings use stored, curated occupation scores. They are presented alongside labor-market data and informed by research frameworks. A stored occupation score is not recomputed from an independently measured time diary for every worker.
The personal assessment uses your title and task description. When model generation is available, a language model interprets that description. When it is unavailable, the service can return an occupation-based fallback with template task explanations. Neither path measures your employer actual automation costs or plans.
Career Health answers another question
Career Health runs from 0 to 10 and combines four factors: AI resistance at 35%, wage rank at 25%, projected growth at 25%, and employment-volume rank at 15%. Higher means a more favorable combination under those chosen weights.
Those weights are not the replaceability formula. Health is a ranking aid; it reflects design choices about what to prioritize. Someone who values flexibility, purpose, or a particular location may reasonably use different criteria.
Compare like with like
Use the rankings to compare nearby roles and inspect the occupation descriptions. A broad occupation category may combine work that is very different at two employers. Small score gaps are not evidence of meaningful certainty.
When comparing personal assessments, record the task description and the date. A change in wording or a generated response can change the result without any underlying labor-market change. Track responsibilities and observed outcomes alongside the score.
Keep an evidence trail
The public dataset supports inspection of published scores and labor-market fields. It does not reproduce every model-generated personal assessment or supply a complete empirical audit of each curated score.
If a number conflicts with what you know about a role, examine the explanation and send the specific mismatch. The right response to contradictory evidence is to investigate it.
Frequently asked questions
Does 65 mean 65% of my tasks can be automated?
No. It is an index value, not a measured percentage of your tasks or working time.
Does the OECD publish these occupation scores?
No. The OECD framework is a research reference. The Replaceability Index publishes its own scores.
Can the same occupation have a different personal score?
Yes. Your described task mix may differ from the occupation average, and model-generated estimates are not exact measurements.
Sources and methodology
The score is a relative index of task exposure from 0 to 100. It is not a percentage chance of losing a job or a forecast of layoffs. Individual tasks, employer choices, adoption, and regulation all matter.
The Index uses stored BLS-based occupation data. O*NET, OECD capability indicators, and task-exposure research are contextual references. The derivation of the stored occupation scores is not reproducibly documented in the published dataset.
The source snapshot does not record the wage-survey year or employment-projection window. Check the original BLS release before treating these figures as current. Editorial changes and export dates do not establish data freshness.
This essay reflects the evidence available when written; future outcomes remain uncertain.
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